America’s total number of students has declined by an unprecedented 2.6 million, or 13 percent, over the last decade. Another drop of 15 percent is projected, beginning in the mid-2020s, in the number of prospective college students graduating from high schools.

What happened?

between 2008 and 2010, the total fertility rate fell by about ten percent, and then since then it's drifted down even further. So, as a result, we're missing at this point 13 percent of the birth cohorts, and that's been persistent now for the better part of a decade.

When the economy tanked in 2008, predictably, young people decided it wasn't the best time to have kids. A little less predictably, when the economy recovered, we didn't see a recovery in the total fertility rate.

Because of low...

America’s total number of students has declined by an unprecedented 2.6 million, or 13 percent, over the last decade. Another drop of 15 percent is projected, beginning in the mid-2020s, in the number of prospective college students graduating from high schools.

What happened?

between 2008 and 2010, the total fertility rate fell by about ten percent, and then since then it's drifted down even further. So, as a result, we're missing at this point 13 percent of the birth cohorts, and that's been persistent now for the better part of a decade.

When the economy tanked in 2008, predictably, young people decided it wasn't the best time to have kids. A little less predictably, when the economy recovered, we didn't see a recovery in the total fertility rate.

Because of low birthrates following the Great Recession, Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe predicts that the four-year-college applicant pool is likely to shrink by almost 280,000 per class, over four years, starting in 2026, a year known in higher ed as “the Apocalypse.” As youth populations decline everywhere but the southern and western United States, colleges in New England and the Midwest will find it increasingly hard to lure students, particularly those able to pay.

Sources:
* https://hechingerreport.org/with-competition-up-enrollment-down-colleges-are-spending-billions-on-marketing-and-advertising/
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2019/10/21/downfall-hampshire-college-broken-business-model-american-higher-education/?arc404=true
* https://www.edsurge.com/news/2019-10-18-how-tech-companies-are-selling-colleges-on-mass-data-collection