The Mathematics of Predicting the Course of the Coronavirus

Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.

Murray is the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. With about 500 statisticians, computer scientists, and epidemiologists on staff, IHME is a data-crunching powerhouse. Every year it releases the Global Burden of Disease study—an alarmingly comprehensive report that quantifies the incidence and impact of every conceivable illness and injury in each of the world’s 195 countries and territories.

In February, Murray and a few dozen IHME employees turned their attention full-time to forecasting how Covid-19 will hit the US. Specifically, they were trying to help hospitals...